THE SUNDAY BRIEF · Nº 005 · THE BIG DECISION
Phillips · Patek Philippe ref. 1436 in steel, 1945, lot 95 in Geneva on 7 and 8 November. Phillips sold this same watch in November 2015 for CHF 3,301,000.
Three of the headline watches in Phillips' Geneva sale on 7 and 8 November have been to auction before. For two of them I found the earlier price, matched by the watch's own numbers.
In November 2015 Phillips sold a steel Patek Philippe 1436, movement 863'056, for CHF 3,301,000 with fees. It is back as lot 95, estimated at CHF 2 million to 4 million. In March 2015 Antiquorum sold an F.P. Journe Chronomètre à Résonance, number 212/02R, with a hand-engraved Régence dial, for CHF 58,750. It is now lot 7 at Phillips, estimated in excess of CHF 1 million.
Add Phillips' fees and the Patek's low estimate sits 24% under what it made in 2015. The Journe's sits at 21.6 times its 2015 price. Neither lot page gives the earlier price. So before you read a Geneva estimate as a valuation, look up what the watch, or its closest sister, actually made.
The steel Patek is estimated below its own past.
Patek made about 140 examples of the 1436 split-seconds chronograph over 33 years, according to Phillips, and only two steel ones are known in their original configuration. This is one of them. In 2015 it was estimated at CHF 1.5 million to 3 million and made CHF 3,301,000 with fees.
Phillips now adds 27% to the hammer up to CHF 1.6 million and 21% above that, before Swiss VAT. At the low estimate the buyer pays CHF 2,516,000, still 24% under 2015. To pay what the last buyer paid, the hammer has to reach CHF 2,648,760.
One line in Phillips' conditions of sale matters here. The reserve, the seller's secret minimum, cannot exceed the low estimate unless a third-party guarantee sits above it. Unless one is announced, whoever consigned this watch has agreed to a reserve of CHF 2 million or less, CHF 2,516,000 with fees, against CHF 3,301,000 in 2015.
The Journe starts at more than twenty times its 2015 price.
Phillips · F.P. Journe Chronomètre à Résonance "Régence", No. 212/02R, platinum, 2002, lot 7. Antiquorum sold it in March 2015 for CHF 58,750.
Antiquorum's 2015 catalogue called it part of a five-piece series for the Geneva retailer Les Ambassadeurs, estimated it at CHF 35,000 to 55,000 and records it as sold for CHF 58,750 (the page doesn't say whether that includes the premium; it equals a CHF 47,000 hammer plus 25%). Phillips now counts three Régence dials and two delivered watches, and says this is the only one with a shiny pink gold dial.
At the minimum estimate plus 27%, the buyer pays CHF 1,270,000, 21.6 times the 2015 price. That multiple prices in the whole rise of Journe since 2015, on a 38mm watch with an early brass movement.
For the Daytona and the Stelline, the sisters set the price.
Lot 20 is a 14k gold Daytona 6241 "John Player Special" on a bracelet stamped VCA (most likely Van Cleef & Arpels, according to Phillips' September announcement). Phillips says it was last at auction in 2018 but doesn't give the result. Its sisters from the same serial batch are easier to read, because Phillips sold them. Number 2'084'363 made CHF 800,000 in May 2019. Number 2'084'251 made CHF 1,330,500 in May 2024. The new estimate is CHF 800,000 to 1.6 million. With fees, the low estimate is CHF 1,016,000, 27% above the 2019 sister and 24% below the 2024 one.
Lot 129, a yellow gold Rolex 6062 "Stelline" acquired from its first owner in Japan, Phillips says, is estimated in excess of CHF 600,000 (Phillips' September announcement said CHF 600,000 to 1.2 million). In May 2019 Phillips described another yellow gold Stelline in almost the same words, inky blue calendar numerals and sharp apertures, and sold it for CHF 548,000. A third made CHF 187,500 in June 2020, but its luminous material had been restored, so it is a weaker comparison. With fees, the new minimum is CHF 762,000, 39% above the 2019 result.
THE ESTIMATE AND THE LAST REAL PRICE · CHECKED 30 OCTOBER 2026
Phillips lot | 2026 estimate (low + fees) | Last result |
|---|---|---|
CHF 2m to 4m (CHF 2,516,000) | Same watch: CHF 3,301,000 (2015) | |
Over CHF 1m (CHF 1,270,000) | Same watch: CHF 58,750 (2015) | |
CHF 800k to 1.6m (CHF 1,016,000) | Sisters: CHF 800,000 (2019), CHF 1,330,500 (2024) | |
Over CHF 600k (CHF 762,000) | Similar: CHF 548,000 (2019), CHF 187,500 (2020, restored lume) |
Estimates from each Phillips lot page, read on 30 October 2026. In brackets, the low estimate plus Phillips' premium (27% of the hammer up to CHF 1.6 million, 21% above), before 8.1% Swiss VAT, which buyers outside Switzerland can reclaim on export. Phillips results include the premium charged at the time; Antiquorum's 2015 page gives one sold price without saying whether it includes the premium. The Patek, Daytona and Stelline results are Phillips sales; the Journe's is Antiquorum's. Swiss francs throughout, nothing converted.
ALLOCATED VIEW · THREE BUYERS
If you want the steel Patek, this is the one lot here I can show is estimated below its own last price. A hammer of CHF 2,648,760 buys it at its 2015 price, fees included.
If you want the Journe, at the low estimate it costs 21.6 times what the same watch made in 2015. I'd let someone else pay for the whole decade and see where it lands.
If you want a JPS Daytona, the 2024 sister is your marker. Above CHF 1,047,638 at the hammer (CHF 1,330,500 with fees) you'd pay more than the 2024 sister made, and the VCA stamp would have to justify the difference.
My price: the 1436 becomes compelling to me at anything under its 2015 price, so a hammer below CHF 2.6 million. At the low estimate it would cost CHF 785,000 less than last time.
VERDICT · PATEK 1436 STEEL · BUY BELOW CHF 2.6M HAMMER · JOURNE RÉGENCE · WAIT
02 · ONE TO WATCH
No manual 992.2 Touring is listed on Porsche Finder Switzerland.
Last Sunday's brief, on manual against PDK GT3 prices, promised one auction test. On 7 November Broad Arrow sells a 2025 911 GT3 Touring with the six-speed manual at the Dolder Grand in Zurich. It is lot 149, a Swiss car with 3,994 km, estimated at CHF 190,000 to 220,000. Broad Arrow adds 15% to the hammer, plus VAT on that fee, so the low estimate costs CHF 220,809.
On 27 October I went through all 25 GT3 Tourings listed on Porsche Finder Switzerland. Not one is a 992.2 manual. The only manual of any generation is a 992.1 with 25,500 km at Porsche Zentrum Bern, CHF 169,900. New 992.2 Tourings in stock, all PDK, start at CHF 229,500, and Porsche lists the 2027 model year from CHF 232,700 before options (the Zurich car has a carbon roof, rear-axle steering and Sport Chrono).
So at the low estimate, a manual 992.2 Touring that no Porsche Finder Switzerland listing offers costs CHF 11,891 less than a new 2027 model at list and CHF 13,909 more than the cheapest used 992.2 PDK listed there (1,900 km, CHF 206,900). Above a hammer of CHF 200,232, it costs more than that list price.
Next Sunday: Saturday's Geneva results against these estimates, read on each house's results page that evening, and where the Zurich GT3 hammered. The full read follows on 15 November.
YOUR CALL
Which one would you bid on?
Hit reply with the lot, and the number at which you'd put your paddle down.
Arnaud
Allocated
SOURCES & METHOD
Phillips, The Geneva Watch Auction: XXIV, lot pages for 95, 7, 20 and 129 and the 15 September announcement (source of the Van Cleef & Arpels attribution and of the two delivered Régence watches), read 30 October 2026. Premium, VAT and reserve: Phillips Geneva conditions of sale. Past results on the houses' own lot pages: Phillips Geneva Watch Auction: TWO lot 169 (November 2015), NINE lots 50 and 71 (May 2019), XI lot 157 (June 2020, luminous material restored), XIX lot 216 (May 2024); Antiquorum Geneva, 15 March 2015, lot 279. The same watch is identified by movement and case number (Patek) or watch number and dial (Journe); sisters by the serial numbers Phillips lists. Broad Arrow: The Zurich Auction 2026 (premium) and the lot page, read 30 October 2026. Swiss prices: porsche.com Switzerland, GT3 with Touring Package, model year 2027, read 30 October 2026, and Porsche Finder Switzerland, all 25 GT3 Touring listings, read 27 October 2026. CHF amounts rounded to the franc; Broad Arrow charges VAT on its premium; any VAT on the hammer, and import taxes for buyers outside Switzerland, are not included. Images: Phillips.
What's worth buying. What isn't. The author may own, have owned or trade pieces discussed. Nothing here is financial advice.
Not subscribed yet? Get the brief every Sunday: allocated.club/subscribe